Top Stories of 2024 #6: Is Napa Valley Building for a Future That Doesn’t Exist?
By Tim Carl
As 2024 comes to a close, we are dedicating the final two weeks to a countdown of the year’s most-read stories. Covering a wide range of local topics, these pieces reflect the varied interests of our readers and offer a moment to look back before turning toward 2025. Join us as we revisit the highlights that shaped the year. Original run date: Aug. 31, 2024.
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NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — The push for affordable housing in Napa Valley might be based on inaccurate assumptions — particularly the belief that a large influx of workers commutes into the region daily, necessitating extensive housing expansion.
A prominent local educator, who will remain anonymous, recently claimed that more than 60,000 to 70,000 people commute into the valley each day — a figure cited to justify the need for expanded "affordable" housing. This number seemed implausible, prompting us to investigate the actual number of commuters.
As we will show below, our findings reveal that this claim is inaccurate, raising critical questions: How widespread is the belief that 60,000 to 70,000 people commute into Napa Valley daily? What is the source of this claim, how has it influenced the push to build more housing and what are the implications of relying on such inaccurate assumptions?
The Commuter Misconception
Data from the American Community Survey's County-to-County Commuting Flows from 2011 to 2015 report showed that approximately 22,730 workers commute into Napa Valley daily, while 15,488 commute out, resulting in a net gain of just over 7,000 commuters.
A more recent study by the Napa Valley Transportation Authority, using 2018 data, offers a more current view of the commuter landscape. It found that while there are roughly 70,000 “intra-county” trips on peak days, on average, 30,740 workers commute into the valley while 26,500 commute out, resulting in a net gain of just 4,240 inbound commuters. This is a decrease from the previously reported net gain of 7,000 and significantly lower than the claim of 60,000 to 70,000 inbound commuters.
Reassessing the Data
In an email conversation, NVTA representatives confirmed that our figures align with even more recent data. They also mentioned that the NVTA is preparing an updated report, and we will provide an analysis of any potential impacts on our findings once it is published.
In the same email, the NVTA representative noted, "The types of jobs people are commuting out of Napa to are probably higher-wage than the jobs people are commuting into Napa for, which is probably largely service sector/hospitality."
This raises important questions: Why are higher-wage earners commuting out of the area? Does increasing reliance on low-wage employment sectors carry risks — not only for those employed in these sectors, who may be more vulnerable to economic downturns or shifts in consumer trends, but also for the community itself? What does it say about a wealthy community such as Napa Valley when the economic balance tips so that those who work here can’t afford to live here and those who can afford to live here don’t work here? What does that do to community cohesion in the long term?
The Net Commuter Shift
Analyzing data from the two above studies, we observe a significant decline in Napa Valley's net inflow of commuters. In 2015, the valley had a net inflow of approximately 7,000 commuters. By 2018, this number had dropped to 4,240, marking a decline of 2,760 commuters over three years — an average decrease of about 920 commuters per year. If this trend continues, Napa Valley could face a net outflow of nearly 4,960 commuters by 2028, a figure that could worsen if current economic trends persist.
The decline in commuter inflows between 2015 and 2018 is particularly surprising, given that this period likely marked the peak of Napa Valley tourism, with 3.85 million visitors in 2018. With tourism declining to 3.7 million visitors in 2023— a 3.9% drop — this trend could further accelerate commuter outflow as local tourism demands are often touted as a key driver of increased affordable-housing needs.
Factoring in the continued 3.9% annual decline in tourism, the projected commuter outflow could increase by an additional 36 commuters per year, leading to an annual decline of 956 commuters. Over the next few years, this could result in a cumulative net outflow of approximately 5,320 commuters by 2028.
Rethinking Housing Needs
Some might argue that the total number of inbound commuters is more relevant than the net figure when assessing housing demand, but the net number may provide a more accurate perspective if the goal is to meet the community's actual needs. If a majority of Napa Valley commuters eventually work elsewhere, building more local housing may not address the core issue. In such a scenario, new affordable housing in Napa Valley might primarily serve those working in other counties — a strategy that, while potentially valid, isn’t typically how the argument is framed.
Economic Reality Check
The push for "affordable housing" in Napa Valley is often justified as essential for sustaining the local economy, driven by the belief that a growing workforce is crucial for the region’s prosperity. However, this argument loses strength if the local economy shows signs of stagnation or contraction. Additionally, the idea that such growth benefits the entire community becomes questionable when we consider that, despite the increase in jobs and the number of wineries, resorts, and hotels, the overall economic success has not been evenly distributed. This is reflected in personal income trends, which suggest that economic gains may not be reaching the average individual as effectively as the region's overall growth might suggest.
One key factor in this economic decline is Napa Valley's changing demographic profile. The population is shrinking, not just due to expensive housing but also because of an aging population and shifting economic priorities. The once-dominant baby-boomer generation, which fueled Napa Valley’s prosperity through their disposable income and preference for luxury tourism and wine, is now moving into retirement. As they redirect spending toward healthcare and other age-related needs, Napa Valley’s economic landscape is changing. Subsequent generations are smaller, have different spending habits, and lack the same interest in luxury tourism and wine consumption — sectors that have long been the backbone of Napa Valley's economy.
Challenges in Attracting Young Families
Napa Valley, long celebrated for its wine and luxury tourism, is now facing the challenges of its own success. The very factors that once fueled its prosperity could now be hindering its appeal to young families.
A critical aspect often overlooked in the discussion about building more affordable housing is whether it truly meets the needs of families. The key question is: What does Napa Valley offer to young families who are considering making the region their home?
With limited K-12 educational opportunities and a community increasingly centered around the adult-beverage industry, Napa Valley might struggle to attract and retain families, especially when other regions offer more family-friendly environments. Moreover, is building dormitory-style apartments to house a hospitality and winery workforce really the kind of development that will attract and retain families in the region? Who does such housing truly serve?
Adapting to a Shifting Reality
Given this shifting reality, the construction of hundreds of new housing units in recent years — along with many more planned or under development — raises a crucial question: Who will fill these homes? Demographic shifts in the region indicate a declining working-age population (18-64), with projections suggesting a 19.8% decrease by 2030. Meanwhile, the population over 65 is expected to rise significantly by 12%.
As a result, homes intended for young families and the local workforce may instead be occupied by retirees or those working in other counties. If this happens, the current strategy would need to be urgently reconsidered, as adapting to this new reality could require a significant shift in housing and community planning.
Overbuilding or targeting housing for the wrong population could result in infrastructure being underutilized or improperly resourced — such as building playgrounds instead of senior centers — increased long-term economic commitments and a strain on natural resources. These are consequences that could have lasting effects on the community. The push for affordable housing, while well-intentioned, might not only fail to address the issues it aims to solve but also create new challenges. By focusing too narrowly on housing, Napa Valley risks overlooking more effective solutions to its underlying problems.
A Path Forward
Alternative strategies — such as investing in workforce development, improving public transportation, diversifying downtown amenities and the economy, enhancing schools and family-friendly services, and upgrading existing housing infrastructure — could offer more sustainable solutions. These approaches might help retain a diverse population, stabilize an economy heavily reliant on the wine industry and reduce the pressure to allocate valuable resources to potentially underutilized housing projects.
Napa Valley’s leaders and policymakers should carefully reconsider the impact of additional affordable housing on the region’s long-term economic and community health. Their decisions should be guided by accurate and well-considered data and should focus on creating balanced, sustainable growth that meets the community's actual needs, avoiding actions based on inflated figures or outdated assumptions. By planning for the future with accurate projections, Napa Valley can ensure that development efforts align with genuine demand.
The stakes are high. To preserve its character and future viability, Napa Valley must confront its challenges with a clear understanding of today’s realities, allowing it to thrive not just as a destination but as a sustainable community for its families and workers.
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Tim Carl is a Napa Valley-based photojournalist.