Thanks, Tim. Your article is spot on. My wife and I have visited the Valley regularly for over 20 years and bought a house in Calistoga in 2021. In addition to the challenges to tourism you mention, the sky-rocketing cost of tasting fees in the past few years and especially since the pandemic has been eye-popping. Wineries have now established tasting fees as another source of revenue independent from the sale of their wine. The practical effect of this is to limit a tourist’s capacity to attend multiple tastings a day because it has simply become unaffordable. The consequence of that reality would seem to translate into fewer tourists and fewer wine sales....not sure where that ends!
Tim, very good article, but I have to take issue with your "Doing The Math" section. I'm not sure what the purpose of this section was supposed to address, but, IMO, it is WAY wrong. First off you start with "4 million visitors" without discerning whether these are individual visitors who might be staying multiple nights, or if each multiple night visitor is counted as one visitor. After 40 years in the hotel business my average stay was closer to 1.5 nights. The second huge problem with your math is that you are expecting these visitors to be "typical" American travelers. Visitors to Napa Valley DO NOT bring their two children. The final major flaw in your piece is assuming that each visitor is going to only visit ONE wine serving establishment per day? EACH visitor (even if they don't go to a single winery) is likely to go to at least two establishments per day that serve wine, for lunch and dinner. And since the "average" visitor to Napa Valley is coming here BECAUSE of the wine all the rest of your AVERAGE AMERICAN stats can fly out the window. That all said, I applaud you attempt at addressing what could be troubling trends, but your absolutely terrifying math is, again IMO, horribly wrong.
Estimates are always challenging. That said, I do appreciate your input. I point out in the article that even if every single visitor purchases a case of wine it would still be a challenging situation — a completely unrealistic situation, but you have some bookends. Also, 4 million people is probably an outlier. All being said, I’d encourage keeping that baby in the bathtub, which sounds like you would be in agreement. And don’t worry, you will have plenty more opportunities to refine the discussion going forward—as a PhD scientist, I love doing the math! Thank you.
I have a question you can probably answer. Your stats on new winery licenses and tasting locations seems alarming. I don't know how "custom crush" licenses fit into this. Your article makes it sound like there is an astronomical increase in physical wineries, but when I visit wineries these days almost every one of them are making wine under many different labels, many of them "vanity" labels that require a license but either hit very specialized markets or never see the market at all. I have been told that a great number of these custom crush labels are for uber-wealthy clients who give the wine away to friends and clients. It seems like this would account for a great deal of the increase of licenses without having the kind of impact you are warning about.
Jim. Thank you for your comment. First, our role is to inform, not warn. A permit to make and sell wine gives the maker of wine the ability to sell their wine. Any adult can make wine in the US -- Title 27, Section 24.75 allows for the production of 100 gallons of wine a year for family consumption but they can't sell it. There are an estimated 900+ physical wineries in Napa County and between 300 to 500 virtual wineries, but all the permits mentioned can be used to sell wine. If someone gives wine away when they could sell it, they are eroding general sales, but that is up to them. The Napa Valley produces 4% of the wine in California. There are roughly 5,000 wineries in California. If the wine business were proportionally distributed, there would be 20 wineries in the Napa Valley. Of course, the wine industry is not distributed based on production volume alone; other factors like terroir, consumer demand, and historical development play a role. These are just facts, to inform. Again, thank you for your comments.
Your readers, at least the ones who post on Nextdoor, are using your words to warn and scare others of impending doom. And the way you present your facts (and title your articles) it certainly seems like your articles are warnings and don't look deeply enough to actually inform. Equating new winemaking licenses with new physical wineries is not hard for those who read your articles to conflate. With your ability to dig into facts/numbers, and possibly balance out your reporting, I think it would be interesting to hear a study on how many licenses the average winery makes wine for. From my informal discussions with winery owners and staff many of them make wine for many private clients (all needing separate licenses). This would help balance out the alarming numbers of new licenses being issued recently.
Bingo! Thank you for this.
Thanks, Tim. Your article is spot on. My wife and I have visited the Valley regularly for over 20 years and bought a house in Calistoga in 2021. In addition to the challenges to tourism you mention, the sky-rocketing cost of tasting fees in the past few years and especially since the pandemic has been eye-popping. Wineries have now established tasting fees as another source of revenue independent from the sale of their wine. The practical effect of this is to limit a tourist’s capacity to attend multiple tastings a day because it has simply become unaffordable. The consequence of that reality would seem to translate into fewer tourists and fewer wine sales....not sure where that ends!
Excellent article portraying the current struggles of the industry. Thank you Tim.
Many of these complications point to future needs for wisdom. An important story.
A great, sobering read...
Tim, very good article, but I have to take issue with your "Doing The Math" section. I'm not sure what the purpose of this section was supposed to address, but, IMO, it is WAY wrong. First off you start with "4 million visitors" without discerning whether these are individual visitors who might be staying multiple nights, or if each multiple night visitor is counted as one visitor. After 40 years in the hotel business my average stay was closer to 1.5 nights. The second huge problem with your math is that you are expecting these visitors to be "typical" American travelers. Visitors to Napa Valley DO NOT bring their two children. The final major flaw in your piece is assuming that each visitor is going to only visit ONE wine serving establishment per day? EACH visitor (even if they don't go to a single winery) is likely to go to at least two establishments per day that serve wine, for lunch and dinner. And since the "average" visitor to Napa Valley is coming here BECAUSE of the wine all the rest of your AVERAGE AMERICAN stats can fly out the window. That all said, I applaud you attempt at addressing what could be troubling trends, but your absolutely terrifying math is, again IMO, horribly wrong.
Estimates are always challenging. That said, I do appreciate your input. I point out in the article that even if every single visitor purchases a case of wine it would still be a challenging situation — a completely unrealistic situation, but you have some bookends. Also, 4 million people is probably an outlier. All being said, I’d encourage keeping that baby in the bathtub, which sounds like you would be in agreement. And don’t worry, you will have plenty more opportunities to refine the discussion going forward—as a PhD scientist, I love doing the math! Thank you.
I have a question you can probably answer. Your stats on new winery licenses and tasting locations seems alarming. I don't know how "custom crush" licenses fit into this. Your article makes it sound like there is an astronomical increase in physical wineries, but when I visit wineries these days almost every one of them are making wine under many different labels, many of them "vanity" labels that require a license but either hit very specialized markets or never see the market at all. I have been told that a great number of these custom crush labels are for uber-wealthy clients who give the wine away to friends and clients. It seems like this would account for a great deal of the increase of licenses without having the kind of impact you are warning about.
Jim. Thank you for your comment. First, our role is to inform, not warn. A permit to make and sell wine gives the maker of wine the ability to sell their wine. Any adult can make wine in the US -- Title 27, Section 24.75 allows for the production of 100 gallons of wine a year for family consumption but they can't sell it. There are an estimated 900+ physical wineries in Napa County and between 300 to 500 virtual wineries, but all the permits mentioned can be used to sell wine. If someone gives wine away when they could sell it, they are eroding general sales, but that is up to them. The Napa Valley produces 4% of the wine in California. There are roughly 5,000 wineries in California. If the wine business were proportionally distributed, there would be 20 wineries in the Napa Valley. Of course, the wine industry is not distributed based on production volume alone; other factors like terroir, consumer demand, and historical development play a role. These are just facts, to inform. Again, thank you for your comments.
Your readers, at least the ones who post on Nextdoor, are using your words to warn and scare others of impending doom. And the way you present your facts (and title your articles) it certainly seems like your articles are warnings and don't look deeply enough to actually inform. Equating new winemaking licenses with new physical wineries is not hard for those who read your articles to conflate. With your ability to dig into facts/numbers, and possibly balance out your reporting, I think it would be interesting to hear a study on how many licenses the average winery makes wine for. From my informal discussions with winery owners and staff many of them make wine for many private clients (all needing separate licenses). This would help balance out the alarming numbers of new licenses being issued recently.
Your feedback has been noted. Thank you.