AI will take your job, eventually - Poll
AI will take your job, eventually - Poll
By Tim Carl
Editor’s note: Napa Valley Features will closely monitor AI's impact throughout the year. We invite readers to share perspectives via our poll questions below. Please take time with the questions as answers can't be changed.
NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — The year 2024 will usher in a transformative era where generative AI and robotics are fundamentally reshaping how industries operate. These advanced tools are redefining workflows across a spectrum that ranges from routine administrative duties to complex scientific research. While there is palpable excitement about the potential unleashed by these technologies, there is also an undercurrent of anxiety about their impact on job security and the future of entire sectors. Some forecasts even suggest that this technological revolution might render nearly every existing job obsolete within the next decade, while others suggest that it might create even more jobs than it takes.
A recent Gallup poll suggests that more than half of employees (53%) say they don't feel prepared for AI, with 72% of top chief human resources officers saying that AI will replace their jobs within the next three years.
My personal outlook on AI is laced with skeptical optimism. The technology's potential to accelerate processes and liberate time for creative pursuits is potentially transformative. The implications extend beyond the arts, such as photography and filmmaking, to the realm of complex analysis, where AI can process tasks in a fraction of the time traditionally required. Instantaneous language translation, making suggestions about everything from what to order on a menu to how to tie your shoes, extracting historical narratives from a mere image taken on your phone, synthesizing comprehensive datasets for detailed analysis, writing computer code for customized apps or creating images based on text prompts — all of which only scratch the surface of AI’s profound capabilities.
Promise and perils
However, these potential advances do not come without inherent risks and challenges. The potential for biases to become entrenched within AI algorithms is a significant concern, as this could perpetuate negative behaviors and spread misinformation. The threat of job disruptions and the concentration of power among a select group of technology entrepreneurs also looms large. Other pressing issues include privacy concerns, cybersecurity threats, opaque algorithmic decision-making, intellectual property disputes, manipulative and fake content, voice cloning for spam purposes and an arms race in AI warcraft capabilities. The societal, individual and governmental response to these challenges will shape the regulation and usage of AI in the years to come.
In the current landscape, technological progress is outpacing the development of laws and regulations intended to oversee it. We find ourselves in what could be described as the "Wild West" of AI advancement, a period characterized by rapid innovation and the attendant benefits and challenges.
Clinton, my son and a professor at Loyola Marymount University, offers a helpful metaphor: Consider AI as a sophisticated calculator that enhances our ability to process information. This tool, when used judiciously, can be an asset rather than a dependency. This perspective is invaluable as we strive to integrate AI into our daily lives, approaching it with informed skepticism and appropriate caution.
Adapting and evolving
The AI gold rush that will likely define 2024 is marked by a flurry of activity where developers (and even non-technological individuals) are empowered to create customized AI applications that are transforming the professional and personal technology landscape. This technological shift is also cultural, as AI redefines nearly every interaction.
A few years ago, an Oxford University study suggested that nearly 50% of U.S. employment is at risk due to AI, particularly affecting jobs with lower wages and educational attainment. Today the author of that study thinks he underestimated the impact. Stanford’s research emphasizes the dual nature of AI: its potential to boost economic prosperity and job growth through innovation and the risk it poses in displacing industries, increasing economic disparity and amplifying skills gaps. It advocates for human-centered design to harness AI's positive potential while mitigating its negative impacts. Together, these studies underscore the urgent need for proactive measures in education, regulation and ethical AI development.
In education, the paradigm is shifting toward individualized learning supported by AI. There's a growing emphasis on developing skills that are less susceptible to automation, such as emotional intelligence, critical thinking, “AI prompt engineers” and creative problem-solving. As educators integrate AI into curricula, the focus is on leveraging AI's capabilities to complement human guidance and ethical insight, but it also has the potential to solidify biases present in its training data, leading to discriminatory outcomes. Moreover, the increased reliance on AI by students raises concerns about their becoming overly dependent and unable to think critically, opting to have a book such as “Moby Dick” summarized into key points rather than being read, pondered and critically considered.
In traditional industries such as Napa Valley's winemaking, AI has the potential to revolutionize and streamline practices, troubleshoot problems, and make suggestions to enhance everything from fermentation temperatures to label designs and marketing. AI can analyze drone and sensor data for vineyard health and environmental conditions, aid in the process of determining optimal grape ripeness and assist with distribution logistics. Yet the trick will be to integrate these technologies while maintaining the region's renowned handcrafted quality and artisanal values.
The service sector also faces significant changes. AI's ability to enhance customer experiences through personalized recommendations and operational efficiency could redefine hospitality. The challenge will be to integrate AI while retaining the personal touch that defines Napa Valley's professionalism and customer service.
Navigating a future reshaped by AI
The long-term economic implications of AI include the potential transformation of economic structures themselves as new technologies catalyze the emergence of novel business models, industries and governmental structures.
Can we imagine when questions such as development, income distribution and business decisions' impacts on climate and the environment are analyzed by an objective AI moderator? What about when the vast majority of information can be summarized into bullet points and objectively checked for accuracy? How about “truth testing” as a politician, business leader or community stakeholder speaks, with the listeners using their phones to check facts in real time? Imagine a world where prices in the grocery store can be checked against online alternatives or when “empathetic” robots can care for the sick and elderly. Or when videos, art or music from your favorite artist (living or dead) can make “new” work for you in real time? How about when all financial trades on Wall Street are done by optimized machines? Or when taste and smell can be analyzed by your phone? How about when AI can sense your mood and adjust accordingly, or when you can talk with anyone from the past — be they former presidents, actors, family members or even mythical beings? Most of this and much more can already be done using AI. Can you imagine what 2024 will bring?
The year 2024 heralds a pivotal juncture in the AI revolution, signaling a future where human and machine labor don't just coexist but collaborate. As AI continues to evolve, integrating diverse data types and developing autonomous functionalities, it offers remarkable opportunities to enhance efficiency and creativity across various sectors. Yet this progress brings complex challenges. To capitalize on AI's potential, a multifaceted approach is essential. Individuals, organizations, communities and governments must invest in continuous education to understand AI's evolving capabilities and ethical implications fully. Keeping abreast of these changes enables a more informed and adaptive response to the rapid advancements in AI technology.
Simultaneously, the implementation of robust regulatory frameworks is imperative for ensuring ethical AI usage while safeguarding privacy and security. Transparent AI systems, where decision-making processes are explainable and accountable, will foster trust and acceptance among users. Adopting and enforcing ethical AI standards is crucial for maintaining societal values. Moreover, fostering collaborative research between stakeholders can provide deeper insights into AI's societal impacts, guiding more responsible and beneficial AI development.
As we move through 2024 and beyond, the conversation around AI must continually evolve to reflect the dynamic interplay between human aspirations and technological advancements. Preparing for the AI-driven market changes through reskilling programs is vital for mitigating the threat of job displacement. By strategically harnessing AI's strengths while diligently addressing its pitfalls, society can ensure that this powerful technology enriches human life rather than diminishes it. In this era of unprecedented change, proactive adaptation and ethical vigilance will be key to navigating the AI landscape successfully, ensuring that its development and deployment serve the greater good.
Tim Carl is a Napa Valley-based photojournalist.
The present "Artificial Intelligence" frenzy is amusing. If you've been reading science fiction since childhood, as I have, you are familiar with the dozens of plots regarding artificial intelligence entities - robots and super computers - taking over the world and destroying humanity, the present hysteria in the news about the threat of artificial intelligence will seem quite naive and amusing.
The best review I've seen of the present state of AI and its possible future, was from John Oliver in a funny, but highly educational, episode of his television show, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver - Artificial Intelligence. (https://youtu.be/3YNku5FKWjw?si=_0HlZS6-er165lc9) You should watch it if you want to know the real story of AI as it now exists. Natural Stupidity is more dangerous than Artificial Intelligence!
But AI has been around for decades. At the end of the last century (I love using that term rather than 1998, for example.) we called it "expert systems". Nothing is really new about AI, just faster computers, cheap large memories, huge data banks, and new software algorithms. But it makes "exciting" news. Nowadays even weather reporting is sensationlized. See a detailed timeline of the development of robotics and artificial intelligence at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_artificial_intelligence
I think you have nicely pointed out that there are disadvantages as well as advantages of AI in your article. What I see happening in the world right now is the excitement of AI with little consideration of the pitfalls. What does happen when AI takes your job? Takes 90% of current jobs? What do those people do? How do they support themselves and their family? I don’t see anyone answering those questions, but the entire structure of our monetized society has to change if we are to embrace AI. We must start thinking in terms of ethics rather than productivity.
Asimov made a good start to this.
The First Law: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
The Second Law: A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
The Third Law: A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
The first law, I think, would cover taking a person’s job and throwing that person into poverty, homelessness and starvation.