2024 food and wine trends - Poll included
By Tim Carl
NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — For more than a decade I've blended industry and consumer trends to forecast food and wine patterns, drawing from diverse conversations, interviews and research. This year I invite your participation through a series of polls to shape a follow-up article.
2024 will continue to grapple with the lingering effects of the pandemic, economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, shifting consumer preferences and an aging population. These factors are reshaping our approach to the pleasures of dining and wining, nudging us toward a preference for comfort and value, though occasional splurges on quality remain.
Food trends
Last year I predicted a slowdown in the trend toward plant-based foods, a rise in comfort food, limited hours of operation due to a tight labor market impacting service quality and significant price increases because of inflation, with some products — such as blueberries — even being taken off the menu because of global supply chain constraints. As the global and economic landscapes shift, so, too, does our approach to food, with 2024 poised to be a year where our dining tables reflect broader societal changes.
Economic influences on dining choices
As economic factors continue to influence dining choices, a notable shift toward more value-driven experiences is accelerating. Patrons are seeking a balance of quality and affordability, prompting restaurants to offer more innovative, budget-friendly options without compromising on taste. The culinary landscape is adapting by reducing costly ingredients and simplifying menus to maximize flavor while minimizing costs.
Comfort food evolution
Comfort food is undergoing a significant transformation as chefs infuse classic dishes with modern creativity. Traditional macaroni and cheese gets a gourmet makeover with the addition of truffle oil or lobster, or old-fashioned meatloaf is reimagined with a mix of premium meats or a glaze of spicy sriracha sauce. The humble shepherd's pie sees a twist with sweet potato topping or a filling of slow-cooked short ribs. Even the classic grilled cheese sandwich will become a culinary canvas, featuring artisanal cheeses, fig jam or caramelized onions.
A refocus on ethical eating
As we transition from a period of celebrating survival, there's a revitalized commitment to understanding the origins and impacts of our food, accompanied by a regained awareness of the long-term future of the planet. This shift is leading to a growing preference for locally sourced ingredients and support for small-scale producers. This trend isn't just a fleeting choice; it reflects a deepening desire to align dining decisions with personal values and a broader commitment to global well-being.
Cobotics and AI in dining
The fusion of cobotics (collaborative robots) and artificial intelligence in the culinary sphere is introducing a new era of dining but not without its skeptics. While cobots are designed to work alongside humans, enhancing service efficiency and precision, their impact on the personal, nuanced nature of hospitality raises questions. These technologies, from automated reservation systems to AI-driven menu suggestions, are becoming more prevalent, promising convenience and customization. For instance, customers might use their smartphones to snap a photo of the menu, and AI can instantly provide wine pairings for a selected dish. However, there's a cautious attitude toward fully embracing these tools, as many value the irreplaceable personal touch and judgment of experienced staff. As we tread into this new territory, the balance between technological assistance and human connection becomes increasingly important. Will these innovations truly enhance the dining experience, or could they undermine the very essence of hospitality?
Tailored nutrition for women's health
As understanding deepens about gender-specific nutritional needs, 2024 will witness an upswing in food products and diets explicitly designed for women's health. This trend encompasses everything from fortified cereals and bars enriched with vital nutrients such as folic acid and iron to calcium-rich foods aimed at bolstering bone density and probiotics geared toward enhancing health. Additionally, herbal supplements for hormonal balance, omega-3 fatty acids for heart health and mood-enhancing snacks are increasingly being sought-after. These developments are reflective of a broader shift toward personalized, holistic dietary choices that acknowledge and cater to the distinct health challenges women encounter over their lifetime.
Additionally, I predict that menu prices will stabilize and that staffing will find equilibrium as workers trade in job-hopping for stability (quit rate is on the decline). Also, “Instagrammable” food will continue to have an impact but less so, and cocktail menus will become (at least) as important as wine menus. 2024 will also see restaurants turning food scraps into nourishing and inventive dishes, reducing waste while promoting an ethical approach to consumption. Buckwheat, with its health benefits and adaptability, is becoming a staple in adventurous kitchens. Mushrooms are being used in a variety of innovative ways, from coffee to meat substitutes. Gourmet instant noodles will redefine quick cuisine with a touch of nostalgia, while single-serve desserts and treats will be offered to those seeking portion-controlled and cost-controlled indulgences. The rise of clean energy drinks showcases a shift toward more natural, wellness-boosting beverages, and the emergence of women's health food products highlights a move toward nutrition tailored to specific needs.
Wine trends
Last year I predicted an end to wineries going public due to the poor performance of Duckhorn (NYSE: NAPA) and Vintage Wine Estates (NASDAQ: VWE); a decrease in foreign tourism; a growing backlash toward undefined “green” wines as consumers questioned what that meant; orange wine would become more sought-after; and lighter glass bottles would become a selling point, while consumers would continue their shift from a preference for wine toward spirits.
Value and experience in wine choices
In the current economic climate, a nuanced balance between seeking value and desiring quality is growing. Enthusiasts are looking for wines that offer a unique story or experience, not just a lower price tag. This trend is leading to a broader exploration of lesser-known varietals and support for passionate small-scale producers.
Interest in smaller artisanal wineries
2024 will witness a heightened interest in local and artisanal wines, indicative of consumers' growing inclination to support small businesses and uncover distinct regional tastes. However, there's an emerging skepticism as larger corporations attempt to co-opt the "artisanal" and "local" labels, blurring the lines between genuine small-scale production and mass-marketed products.
Technological advancements in the wine industry
Revolutionary changes are sweeping through the wine industry as technological advancements significantly enhance production, selection and the overall consumer experience. Innovations such as virtual tastings with 3D headwear will bring the vineyard to living rooms, while sophisticated pairing algorithms suggest the perfect wine for your meal, making fine wines more accessible and adding a layer of personalization previously unattainable. Additionally, drones are now being employed in viticulture to meticulously assess vineyards, offering precise data on grape health, soil conditions and more, thereby optimizing the winemaking process. As technology continues to evolve, it promises to redefine the wine experience. The potential for technology to transform the ancient craft of winemaking is immense. However, it also prompts a note of caution about the extent to which we allow digital advancements to permeate the deeply human art of winemaking and tasting. Despite this, at least in 2024, excitement about these technological possibilities seems poised to overshadow any reservations.
Regenerative and organic wine choices
The growing demand for wines produced with regenerative and organic methods reflects a deeper commitment to environmental health and personal well-being. In 2024, as consumers increasingly seek these wines, there will be a push for clearer definitions and certifications of what constitutes "regenerative" and "organic" practices. As standards become more defined and labeling clearer, consumers will be better positioned to select wines that genuinely reflect their personal principles.
I am also hearing that consumers are slowly shifting their attention away from cabernet sauvignon toward other varietals, and there is a growing interest in imported value wines, while local producers look more toward export markets to fill the gap of slowing demand within the U.S. market. Additionally, in 2024 the wine industry is set to see more mergers and acquisitions and will innovate and expand loyalty programs, offering personalized experiences and local events to drive connections with locals and nearby customers. The rising costs of traditional champagne and some domestic producers will boost the popularity of English sparkling wines from regions like Kent and Sussex, providing quality alternatives at competitive prices. As health consciousness continues to influence consumer choices, expect a surge in no- and low-alcohol wines catering to those seeking moderation without compromise. Unconventional varieties such as orange wine and the refreshing low-alcohol Portuguese Vinho Verde and Italian frizzante wines are anticipated. Additionally, the convenience and environmental consideration of RTD and canned/boxed wines — such as wine spritzers, sangrias and portable sparkling options — will increase as both practical and trendy choices.
Please fill out the above polls and include your top trends in the comments below. Your insights, poll responses and comments are instrumental in shaping the follow-up piece, providing a collective outlook on the evolving landscape of food and wine. Your engagement is crucial in crafting a narrative that reflects our shared experiences and expectations for the coming year. And, of course, next year, we'll revisit these predictions to see how they've fared, continuing our tradition of reflection and forward-thinking.
Tim Carl is a Napa Valley-based photojournalist.
Two of your questions in the wine section were composed of two parts "I will ... but not if". That makes answering them difficult. To which part are the responders agreeing? Poor set-up there.
You need to add one more poll option: I find myself shifting more toward hard spirits (or cocktails) and away from wine.