Wine Chronicles: Napa’s Unexpected Rival
By Dan Berger
Article Thumbnail: Napa Valley cabernet producers are facing intensified competition from red Bordeaux wines, whose prices have dropped sharply amid global wine market contractions. Once a premium segment with stable pricing, Bordeaux is now flooding the market with more affordable options, challenging Napa’s foothold. At the same time, U.S. wine inventories remain high, vineyard acreage is being reduced and consumer demand continues to shift toward lower-alcohol alternatives. The result is a significant recalibration of the premium red wine business — one that could reshape the landscape for years to come.
NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — Sales of all wines worldwide have declined precipitously in the last year. Just about every producer is feeling the wrath of the marketplace. Anti-alcohol forces argue that even a single sip of wine can cause health problems. As a result, consumers have begun seeking lower-alcohol or zero-alcohol products, and, unaccountably, prices for mediocre wines have risen significantly.
One aspect of the weakness in the U.S. wine market is coming from a segment of the wine business that previously wasn’t a particularly major competitor. The question is, will this new competitor pose even more problems?
For many Napa Valley cabernet producers, this relatively new rival is red Bordeaux. For many in the wholesale and retail trades, this might seem like old news. And in a way it is. I predicted this more than 15 years ago, when I reported on the major wholesale player in the Bordeaux trade pulling out of the business. I was not being an alarmist as much as a realist.
“Put simply, nobody needs Bordeaux any more.” — anonymous merchant quoted by Margaret Rand on Wine-Searcher
And what seemed to me 15 years ago an inevitability seems to already have taken place.
Remember that besides being a fine comestible, quality red wine is, vitally, a business. And without people treating it as such, fine-quality red wine risks falling into the category of a commodity in which prices collapse because there is simply too much of a good thing.
And the operative word in that last sentence is “good,” not “great,” because greatness is far less important when the volume of a product is so voluminous in relationship to the slackening demand for it that all prices tend to soften.
Of course, it is unlikely that the most expensive Napa cabernets will suddenly drop in price. But the volume of these wines remains significant. Remember that most of the 2023 and 2024 cabernets (almost none of which have hit the marketplace yet) were made when wine sales had only just begun to weaken. At the time, very few cab producers knew how seriously depressed red wine sales would become. And most producers made just as much wine as they thought they could sell at the time.
Challenge your vocabulary with this week’s mystery word. Submit your answer in the poll, and check the bottom of the page for the correct answer.
The post-COVID-19 wine sales “recovery” turned out to be significantly less of a rebound and more of a minor correction. Sales began to slump in 2023. It was estimated that some 20% to 25% of the fruit grown in North Coast vineyards in 2024 were never harvested, and it is estimated that an even larger share of the crop won’t be picked this year.
The major reason for this is that inventories remain extremely high.
Moreover, industry financial analysts have been predicting for at least a year that the only way to solve this problem, and for the industry to deal with the glut, is for literally tens of thousands of acres of grapevines to be pulled out, reducing the overall supply of wine grapes. At least one industry analyst estimated that 100,000 acres needed to be torn out. Simply abandoning vineyards with the hope that the marketplace will recover is not an option.
The competition between Napa cabernet and quality red Bordeaux has always been somewhat tenuous. The latter carries a far stronger image of quality in major cities, especially in the East. However, many smaller Bordeaux houses had traditionally become dependent on the support of a large investor supporting the wines and their prices. All that has changed.
It was in late 2009 when I first began to hear rumors that Diageo Chateau & Estates, the dominant player in the worldwide Bordeaux wine trade and the most important U.S. top-quality primeurs market (pre-release sales), was reducing its support for all Bordeaux, especially reds. C&E and its predecessor, Seagram C&E, had been overwhelmingly dominant with quality Bordeaux since the late 1960s, guaranteeing smaller houses a return on their investments even in mediocre vintages.
C&E established base prices throughout the Bordeaux district for decades. When the pre-release prices for the 2009 red wines were delayed, it sent shock waves throughout the trade. Within a year, Chateaux & Estates said it was pulling out of the Bordeaux trade completely.
This left a huge hole in which the major players (such as First Growth wines) could continue to command prices based on their exalted images, but smaller producers were left with no support of a major player.
Things have only gotten worse. No one was quite certain what the smaller properties should be charging for their wines. Chaos reigned. The major négociant houses, which normally sell out of all their wines about one year after a harvest, found that there was a general malaise by wine-buyers for the 2024 wines.
The campaign to sell the 2024 red wines (which are reportedly of middling quality) fell flat, according to most reports coming out of Europe. Margaret Rand, writing on the website Wine-Searcher, said the vintage may not have produced classic wines similar to the excellent 2022 Bordeaux, but many of the wines are “graceful and some have notable complexity.”
In general, she said, prices for many Bordeaux fell, “often by quite a lot. The First Growths on average came down around 50 percent on their 2022 prices,” she wrote. “(Château) Lafite… was one of the successes… And yet the campaign overall bombed. Why? You don't have to look far to find answers.
“‘There has to be a reason to buy early,’ says one merchant. ‘There has to be a benefit.’ Another suggested that the lower prices for 2024 wines indicated that 2024 was a lesser-quality year and therefore one to avoid. ‘Put simply, nobody needs Bordeaux anymore.’ There has to be a reason to buy it en primeur.”
(In the past, many en primeur Bordeaux buyers have bought wines prior to release because they anticipated that prices for them would rise, so their purchases would be at a lower price. But since prices remain remarkably static or erratic for older vintages, buying younger wines prior to release is no longer a valid strategy. It’s seen as far too risky.)
What this probably means for Napa Valley cab producers is that several Bordeaux houses may well begin offering reasonable-quality red Bordeaux wines in the U.S. market that will be priced much lower than they have been in several years. Already some of the 2024 red wines are showing up on pre-arrival lists at prices that may appeal to potential Napa cabernet buyers.
For example, the excellent 2022 Château Lynch-Bages today has an average U.S. retail price of $184 per bottle. But the also highly praised 2024 Lynch Bages is listed at $81.
The 2022 Château Figeac is $390; the 2024 is $125. And 2022 Château Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande is $278. But the 2024 is $125.
If there is one saving grace to the prospect that reasonably priced Bordeaux now poses a serious threat to the sale of Napa Valley cabernet, it is that quality Bordeaux has historically been at its best when it is given requisite time resting in a cool wine cellar, improving all the while. And this business of aging is a regimen that simply has had no place in American culture over the last 25 or 30 years.
I know people who have always believed in buying younger red wines that are designed, like quality Bordeaux, to be better after aging. They live by this idea: that it is seen as unseemly to pull the cork on a fine red wine that is less than 10 years from the vintage, 15 years being a better test.
However, as I reported a decade ago, I asked several building contractors back then the last time they were solicited to construct a place to hold onto several cases of vin superior for the purpose of aging. Their replies ranged from, “Huh?” to “Not since the great flood, Noah.”
Today relatively few American consumers actively age their red wines. On the West Coast in particular, long-term cellaring is relatively uncommon.
By contrast, along the Eastern Seaboard, which has always had a much greater exposure to European red wines, there is a longer history of cellaring and aging red wines.
One final bit of sobering news comes from Turrentine Brokerage, one of the most reliable bulk wine and grape statistical services in the industry. The report dated September 2025 includes a final chart of wine available through Turrentine.
Although the 2024 Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon bulk-wine listing does not include gallonage, it lists 58 lots of Napa cabernet in bulk for sale even before a single 2025 Napa cabernet grape has been harvested.
The report includes the fact that literally tens of thousands of acres of grapevines have already been pulled out statewide in order to help balance the market. The report added:
“… The market is navigating a difficult but necessary transition. The bulk wine and grape markets are currently not reflecting the extent of vineyard acreage removals. The efforts to right-size inventories, including the likelihood of unharvested grapes and fewer custom-crush gallons due to low demand, are a direct response to the challenging consumer demand environment. More fundamentally, the ongoing vineyard removals represent a long-term recalibration of the industry's supply base.
“While the immediate pain is evident across all regions, these actions are essential steps toward a healthier market equilibrium. The future of the California wine industry hinges on these difficult actions. And while we have not yet seen the market-wide results, the groundwork is being laid for a more sustainable future.”
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Dan Berger has been writing about wine since 1975.
Wine Discovery:
2023 Truchard Roussanne, Carneros ($30) – When roussanne is grown in the Rhône Valley of France and blended with the lighter marsanne, it makes an interesting blend, but it’s rare to find it unblended. By itself, as this wine displays, the grape’s reddish color and its ability to be harvested late gives it an interesting peach/honey and pineapple aroma and a texture that is rich, not unlike a creamy chardonnay.
Today’s Polls:
This Week's Word Challenge Reveal:
The correct answer is C: Space between wine and cork
“Ullage” refers to the unfilled space between wine and the top of its container—whether in a bottle, barrel or tank. This gap often develops through evaporation or absorption, and it plays a crucial role in how wine ages. In bottles, noticeable ullage can be a warning sign of oxidation or leakage. In barrels, winemakers manage ullage by “topping up” with fresh wine to minimize air exposure and prevent spoilage.
For Napa producers and collectors alike, ullage is an important indicator of wine condition and provenance. Auction houses and serious buyers carefully assess ullage when evaluating older bottles, since too much headspace can signal compromised storage or freshness.
The word comes from Anglo-French oullage, derived from Old French ouiller (“to fill up a barrel”). This itself traces back to œil (“eye”), a reference to the barrel’s bunghole—often called the “eye” of the cask. The term first appeared in English in the 15th century and has remained a standard in the lexicon of wine commerce, reflecting centuries of practical knowledge about the delicate balance between wine and air.
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In my experience, the great majority of Americans buy wine to drink now. They may buy six bottles, or a dozen bottles, or even more, to get the discount for multiple bottles, so they will "cellar" some of the bottles for a couple of weeks or a month or two, but only a vanishing few buy with the intent to enjoy in 10 or 15 years. Most of us who can afford to buy high quality wines designed for long-term aging realize we will not be around when that bottle hits its prime. Today's wine market addresses one question: "What's in it for me tonight or next week?"
A combination of vintage, appellation, producer, how it continues a vertical, or adds something new to compare against others.