Summary: Dan Berger says the California wine industry’s downturn has dragged on long enough that the usual stopgaps are losing effect. With buyers scarce, inventories bloated and sales sluggish, he frames the moment as a “hard reset” for both wineries and consumers. For drinkers, he recommends looking past inflated shelf prices by shopping online, comparing deals and pushing restaurants on markups and corkage. For producers, he suggests using the lull to rethink vineyards and expand portfolios with lower-alcohol, distinctive grapes that may better align with younger tastes.
Readers might also enjoy Berger’s recent wine writing in Sonoma County Features and Lake County Features.
“As difficult as it may be to envision, a hard reset now appears to be in order. Both for the industry and for consumers.” — Dan Berger
NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — When a function on a computer stops in mid-operation, most people simply wait until the little circle in the middle of the screen stops rotating. If waiting doesn’t fix it and the machine continues to sit there, taunting the user and failing to return to normalcy, one solution is to restart it. If that doesn’t work, it might be necessary to turn the machine off and do a hard reset.
The California wine industry has been waiting for that icon to quit rotating for two years, and the current dead-in-the-water situation for many people has not responded to various strategies. As difficult as it may be to envision, a hard reset now appears to be in order. Both for the industry and for consumers.
Most wine companies have already resorted to extreme tactics, such as closing out certain items, deep discounting, creating special deals for wine club members, relabeling existing products, selling inventory in bulk under private labels (like Grocery Outlet’s Second Best Wine) and all manner of radical strategies to make use of products that are in various stages of perishability.
In Northern California vineyards, the future is already here. Spring has pushed the 2026 harvest into reality. Vines are developing nicely, but farming requires expenditures for fruit that may not be usable. Buyers are scarce. Wine sales are sluggish. And the longer the present situation continues, the more everyone’s nerves are frayed. The nation’s inflation rate, announced in late May, rose 3.8%, higher than a year earlier, and even the hardest of resets — selling the family farm — is becoming a questionable activity. Buyers are circumspect.
The May 25 issue of North Bay Business Journal had a lengthy article on page six with the headline “How the industry slump is impacting local winery and vineyard values” by reporter Jeff Quackenbush. It said that merger and acquisition specialist Mario Zepponi and Sonoma-based agricultural land appraiser Tony Correia “painted a picture of an industry undergoing a painful structural reset rather than a short-term slump.”
Zepponi predicted that the industry might not rebound until 2028, and until then several wineries may face bankruptcy. One reason for this is that the large 2025 harvest was about 12% larger than anyone anticipated, and the industry has substantially more wine than anyone expects can be sold within the next 12 months.
Wine-lovers cannot solve this problem very easily. Most of the good wines out there are still overpriced despite a lot of discounting. But there are several strategies that could very well be employed that might not help the industry very much but can make life much more pleasant for people who still like wine and want to enjoy wine with a little more verve. A few of the strategies below might be considered radical, but they make sense to me.
Consumer Strategies
To be blunt, far too many California wines these days are simply overpriced. Wineries are mainly to blame for price increases, but in some cases they are simply paying too much for fruit. Then there are marketing pressures on them that force this situation to become exacerbated by problems not of their own making. (For example, the war in Iran has forced the price of diesel fuel much higher than ever, which has a deleterious impact on shipping costs. Most trucks run on diesel.)
Wineries that are large enough to have wholesale companies represent them frequently are victims of additional costs related directly to the three-tier marketing system in which an extra profit tier kicks prices up. This means that wineries make less money.
Suggested retail prices for California wine almost always are slightly higher than they ought to be, and wineries are reluctant to reduce prices for several reasons.
For one thing, wineries establish a suggested retail price that most retail stores observe. Wineries hate to offer direct-to-consumer prices that are lower than at retail stores to protect retailers. So one sound strategy for consumers seeking good deals should be to shop the internet for discount retailers with direct-to-consumer prices that are lower than retail stores.
Doing an internet search for a wine in which you are interested can pay dividends. Most major cities have retail wine stores that discount. Discounts that are available in supermarkets often don’t add up to what specialty wine retailers offer. One place to start is with an online company called Wine Searcher, which has a substantial database that is free for average consumers. Wine-collectors often find it beneficial to pay for a Wine Searcher membership to see the best deals. I have found it a terrific resource when looking for a specific wine that may be available hundreds of miles from home. Occasionally distant-store prices are low enough so that even when shipping costs are factored in, the wine is less expensive than at a nearby store.
But not all discounted wines are reputable. In late May the Grocery Outlet chain began selling a Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon under its Second Best Wine label for $4.99 per bottle. With the average price of a bottle of Napa Valley cabernet selling for roughly $80, this sounds like quite a bargain.
(Not so fast. I purchased a bottle and tried it. It’s not very good. It may be from Napa as the label indicates, but the wine itself is uninteresting and rather sweet. Grocery Outlet is selling a very good merlot from Oak Knoll that is infinitely more interesting.)
Restaurant markups for wine typically are significantly higher than retail, and many restaurants buy their wine at wholesale prices that are even less than stores are charged. A typical wine that costs a restaurant $50 may have a suggested retail price of $75. But most restaurants would charge $100 to $125 for such a bottle. In a typical economy, such a wine might sell consistently. When the economy turns sour, as today, wines on wine lists at $100 to $150 won’t sell particularly quickly. And restaurant wine inventories are just as stagnant as they are in retail stores.
One strategy I wrote about decades ago during a similar economic period was for restaurant diners to make arrangements with restaurants owner to discount certain “overpriced” wines for regular customers. As anticipated, I got a bit of pushback to my suggestion of this strategy. But one restaurateur told me he loved the idea as it applied to regular customers. He said that even if he sold wines at suggested retail prices, “It’s better than not selling wine at all!”
Most restaurants charge diners a corkage charge to bring in their own wines. In recent years, corkage charges have escalated to discourage diners from doing so. But with restaurants experiencing low patronage, particularly on weeknights, increasing corkage makes absolutely no sense. Recently I heard of several restaurants that now offer free or low corkage on some midweek nights. Mondays and Tuesdays are popular for such promotions. A similar promotion is to offer wine discounts on specific midweek nights. Some restaurants discount all wines 50% on one or two weeknights.
Winery Strategies
With wine sales declining, now is the perfect time for wineries with vineyards to consider budding over traditional varieties to grapes that will allow for the expansion of portfolios that may appeal to today’s younger consumers who seek lower alcohols and unique flavors. Of course not every property has the proper soil or climate to accommodate many of the new varieties. Understanding which grapes grow best in specific soils and climates may take a little research, including chats with nurseries and viticulture experts at UC Davis or Fresno State.
Once homework has been completed, here are a few grapes I would suggest as potential for Northern California vineyards whose owners are looking for additional varieties that might appeal to today’s younger buyers.
Chenin blanc: This terrific grape that grows prolifically in France’s central Loire Valley has recently been reborn in Northern California. At least two dozen wineries in Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino now produce a chenin blanc. And the grape seems to do brilliantly in the Stockton Delta area. The main style on which most wineries seem to be focused is dry or just off-dry, which makes it perfect for picnics or for pairing with lighter-styled foods such as those with Asian flavors (ginger, soy sauce, cilantro, cumin) or salads. What’s really attractive about chenin blanc from a marketing standpoint is that although most people will consume it when it is young, it actually improves fascinatingly in the bottle for a few years. Those who can’t sell it when it is released can display its cellar-aged charms. The main characteristic in its aroma is similar to white melons with a trace of dried flowers. In the Loire Valley, most of the chenin blancs are slightly sweet; dry ones such as Vouvray are marked “sec.”
Albariño: This lovely white wine grape from northeastern Spain is probably best consumed young to capture the delicate spice component that is not unlike a delicate version of gewürztraminer. Already relatively popular with several West Coast wineries, it is easy to like because of vibrant aromatics and a lush mid-palate. Although most versions are best consumed early, the variety is so interesting and aromatic that it is still attractive a year or two after the vintage.
Gamay: One of the world’s most charming lighter-red wines is made from this grape that also produces Beaujolais in France. In the United States it has been revitalized mainly in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, and now several northern California wineries are making use of it to add a little zippy fruit to blends.
In most cases, the wine gamay makes here is not particularly complex, but several domestic producers take it far more seriously. Then the wine can be fascinating with aroma elements that include black pepper, licorice and ripe cherries. Several of these wines developed beautifully in the bottle.
Grüner veltliner: An Austrian grape variety with a long history of making classic slightly off-dry wines that are not unlike riesling with hints of lime or grapefruit rind. In cooler climates this grape has an aroma similar to slightly underripe tropical fruit. The wine is frequently made with a little more sugar, so it is broadly appealing as a patio-sipper.
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Dan Berger has been writing about wine since 1975.
Wine Discovery:
2023 Patent Wines Sauvignon Blanc, Napa Valley ($45/see below): When I tasted this wine for the first time, I immediately began thinking of some of the finest sauvignon blancs ever made in Napa Valley by winemaker Randy Mason at now-defunct Lakespring Winery using fruit from near the town of Yountville. Then I noticed that the wine was from a vineyard near Yountville! It was made by Tom Rinaldi, one of my favorite winemakers (and people) and a brilliant wine stylist. Rinaldi is famed for being the founding winemaker at Duckhorn, among other projects. I thought he had retired; this sensational wine convincingly proves otherwise. It is as classic an example of sauvignon blanc as you can find anywhere. Unlike so many flaccid SBs, Rinaldi here creates a wine with the grapefruit-y and subtle spice character that can only come from sauvignon blanc grown in a cooler climate (like Yountville), and then picked early enough to capture the essence of the variety. There is no residual sugar, like many other uninteresting, flabby SBs. This wine has the requisite minerality that calls for proper seafood, sans cream sauce. From Rinaldi: “Aromas of lemon/lime and honeysuckle with a touch of vanilla and tropical notes. Lime zest and juicy acidity, ripe flavors linger on the palate. Finishes with a charming touch of nutmeg. I think this wine will speak for itself. Mouth-coating, creamy, yet tangy palate. Long memorable finish that invites yet another taste. A true reflection of the marvelous vintage in the Napa Valley. The 2023 vintage was an exceptional for Napa Valley, and we were delighted to bring in grapes of high quality, and were extremely pleased with the Yountville vineyard for our Sauvignon Blanc with an extremely tiny quantity of Semillon and Muscat.” Bottle Barn in Santa Rosa has this wine for unbelievable $17.99. — Dan Berger Review
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I like Albariño.
Albarino