Under the Hood: Wine Supply Outruns Demand
By Tim Carl
The Spotlight
Welcome to Under the Hood, our exclusive Saturday series for Napa Valley Features paid subscribers.
Today’s Under the Hood Article Summary
The U.S. wine industry is now producing far more wine than current drinking patterns can absorb, with total weekly supply close to three times self-reported demand. Even after calibrating for under-reporting so that the year 2000 appears roughly in balance, the 2025 market still looks about 60% oversupplied, implying that roughly one out of every three gallons would need to come out of the system to restore equilibrium. Over the same period, Gallup data show that fewer adults drink at all, those who do drink consume less, and wine ranks as the third most common choice behind beer and spirits. For regions like Napa Valley, this points to a structural reset rather than a temporary downturn, with long-term consequences for vineyards, jobs and local public finances.
Beyond today’s discussion, we’re also diving into the latest data from our readers’ polls and providing insights from our economic dashboard, covering local Napa Valley, U.S. and global markets.
“What We’re Reading” features excerpts from recent articles offering a range of perspectives on topics shaping our community and the wider world. “Visuals That Caught Our Eye,” at the end, spotlights compelling charts and graphs that stood out this week.
“What We’re Reading”: Excerpts of the Day
“It had reached a critical point where our members said the main question their tasting rooms get is, ‘Do you use Roundup?’” – from Anna Brittain, in “‘Do you use Roundup?’ Why so many Napa vineyards have abandoned Monsanto’s controversial weed killer,” San Francisco Chronicle.
“Pursuant to the Data Quality Act (DQA), which requires federal agencies to ensure the quality, objectivity, utility and integrity of information they disseminate to the public, this webpage has been updated because the statement ‘Vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim. Scientific studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines contribute to the development of autism.” – from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. The CDC updated its vaccine safety webpage to include an asterisk next to the statement “Vaccines do not cause autism,” stating, “* The header ‘Vaccines do not cause autism’ has not been removed due to an agreement with the chair of the U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee that it would remain on the CDC website.”
“The announcement is negative in that it reflects increased pessimism by TWE regarding long-term market fundamentals, and reinforces the view that TWE materially overpaid for previously acquired Americas brands.” – from Michael Toner, in “Treasury Wine flags $450 million writedown of US assets, shares hit decade low,” Reuters.
