Under the Hood: Rising Property Values, Shrinking Jobs in Napa County
By Tim Carl
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The Spotlight
Welcome to “Under the Hood,” our exclusive Saturday series for Napa Valley Features paid subscribers. This week, we examine Napa County’s 2024 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, which reveals a widening gap between rising property values, the county’s largest taxpayers and a stagnating job market — raising critical questions about why economic gains on paper aren’t translating into broader prosperity.
Additionally, we’re diving into the latest data from our readers’ polls and providing insights from our economic dashboard, covering local Napa Valley, U.S. and global markets.
In addition, we feature "What We Are Reading," a section with a handpicked list of recent articles that provides a variety of viewpoints on issues important to our community and beyond.
“What We Are Reading” quotes of the day:
"Don’t F it up!" – from Joel Peterson, in "Exclusive: Ravenswood Reborn," Wine Spectator.
"Because of the tariffs imposed by the U.S., Americans will pay more for groceries, gas and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs." – from Justin Trudeau, in "China, Canada retaliate against U.S. tariffs," Just Drinks.
"The turnaround never came." – from WineBusiness, in "Constellation Eyeing Exit from Wine Business," WineBusiness Monthly.
"A lot of brands are dead, but they don’t even know it right now." – from a prominent Napa vintner in "This will be the year of California winery closures," San Francisco Chronicle.
"I mean, that’s worse than a tariff because it’s literally taking your sales away, [and] completely removing our products from the shelves." – from Lawson Whiting, in "Jack Daniel’s maker says Canada pulling U.S. alcohol off shelves ‘worse than tariff,’’’ The Guardian.
"The news media institutions — specifically, newspaper and television news — ranked at the bottom, just above Congress." – from Gallup, in "Five Key Insights Into Americans' Views of the News Media."
"The National Science Foundation as we know it could cease to exist." – from Kenny Evans, in "Trump team orders huge government layoffs: How science could fare," Nature.
"Wall Street is now staring down a worsening cocktail of Trump’s tariff fury, stretched equity valuations and the cold, hard realization that the U.S. economy may be losing steam." – from Stephen Innes, in "U.S. dollar hits three-month low as trade war sparks ‘Trumpcession’ fears, and FTSE 100 slides – as it happened," The Guardian.
Under the Hood: Rising Property Values, Shrinking Jobs in Napa County
By Tim Carl
NAPA COUNTY, Calif. — Napa County’s economy continued to show signs of contraction, according to the recently released 2024 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report (fiscal year basis – 7/1/2023 through 6/30/2024). The new financial data confirm what many have feared: 2024 saw softening demand, lower sales tax revenue and Transient Occupancy Tax taxes (a lodging tax on short-term stays), growing fragility in the workforce and an increasing reliance on corporate tourism and luxury real estate. While property tax revenue has grown and county reserves remain strong, these bright spots are overshadowed by troubling signs of long-term economic instability.
These economic pressures mirror troubling trends in the wine industry — the county’s dominant sector — where mid-tier wineries are struggling, grape demand is weakening and recent bellwether auction prices continue to slip. This reflects a broader economic shift, with a few high-end buyers remaining strong while mid-tier producers and the community they support face mounting challenges.
At the same time, larger corporate resorts and investment funds have taken a growing share of Napa County’s economic landscape, replacing family-owned wineries as major employers and top taxpayers. Unlike wineries that reinvest profits locally, these resorts often channel revenue elsewhere, reducing the money circulating within Napa County’s economy. Data also show that hospitality workers earn less than winery workers on average. Even so, hotel construction is expected to expand despite falling visitor spending, raising concerns about oversupply and further downward pricing pressure.
The result is an economy that is becoming increasingly fragile — one where Napa County’s core industries are struggling to sustain the region’s financial health. As if to underscore these challenges, three tasting rooms closed in Napa County in February. With these realities in mind, we break down the key findings from Napa County’s financial report and examine what they mean for the future.
This is not a temporary slowdown — it’s a structural shift. If mid-tier wineries continue closing, local businesses falter and hotel competition forces room rates down, Napa County could soon find itself with more supply of both wine and hotel rooms than there is demand, more economic extraction than reinvestment and a growing divide between those who thrive and those who struggle.
Key Economic Trends in Napa County
The 2024 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report presents a complex picture of Napa County’s economy — showcasing areas of financial resilience, such as rising property tax revenue and strong reserves, while also revealing structural weaknesses, including declining visitor spending, job losses among major employers, and an increasing reliance on corporate and real estate investments that might not directly benefit the local workforce.
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