Under the Hood: Discretionary Income Surplus Is History
By Tim Carl
Today’s Under the Hood Spotlight
Welcome to Under the Hood, our exclusive Saturday series for Napa Valley Features paid subscribers.
Today’s Under the Hood Article Summary:
New data on “paycheck waterfalls” show that Napa Valley households have experienced a dramatic decline in disposable income over the past three decades — from $24,000 in 1990 (adjusted for inflation) to just $1,000 in 2023. This shift reflects rising fixed costs such as housing, healthcare, childcare and debt, outpacing wage growth. The data suggest that the broad-based surplus spending that once fueled Napa’s wine, tourism and real estate sectors has largely vanished. As a result, the region faces a structural economic plateau, not a temporary slowdown.
Beyond today’s discussion, we’re also diving into the latest data from our readers’ polls and providing insights from our economic dashboard, covering local Napa Valley, U.S. and global markets.
“What We’re Reading” features excerpts from recent articles offering a range of perspectives on topics shaping our community and the wider world. A new section at the end, “Visuals That Caught Our Eye,” spotlights compelling charts and graphs that stood out this week.
BREAKING NEWS
Sept. 26, 2025, 5 p.m., PST — The Wine Institute released its 2024 production report. California output fell 17.1% to 508.2 million gallons, the lowest since 1999. U.S. production dropped 15% to 647.7 million gallons, the lowest since 2004. California accounted for 78.5% of national production, down from more than 90% in the early 2000s. Compared with its 2013 peak, California production is down 32.6%.
We will explore the implications of this new data in subsequent Under the Hood columns, but in summary, the 2024 numbers mark one of the steepest declines in modern California wine history.
“What We’re Reading”: Excerpts of the Day
“This event brings us another step closer to creating a primary care center for the individuals who keep our community thriving, from vineyard and winery workers to restaurant teams and hotel staff, ensuring they know they are valued and supported.” – from Rick Jones, in “OLE Health Foundation Raises $3.3M to Support Building a New Up Valley Health Center in Calistoga,” OLE Health Foundation.
“We may have hit bottom, but I can’t call for sure.” – from Jon Moramarco, in “Reporting ‘Black Holes’ Blur Industry’s View of Bottom, Recovery,” WineBusiness.
“Harmful consumption is the thing they are trying to reduce — not consumption per se. It’s a very important distinction.” – from Julian Braithwaite, in “This UN Meeting Could Change How the World Drinks,” Drinks Insider.
“Preserving wine means defending a civilization, a way of life, a living universal heritage, a part of humanity that has been passed down from generation to generation for thousands of years.” – from Guillaume d’Angerville and Véronique Sanders, in “Appeal by the International Wine Academy to Heads of State and Government Attending the United Nations 80th Anniversary General Assembly in New York,” International Wine Academy.
