Under the Hood: American Canyon Grows While the Upvalley Shrinks
By Tim Carl
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The Spotlight
Welcome to “Under the Hood,” our exclusive Saturday series for Napa Valley Features paid subscribers. Today we examine Napa County’s apparent population rebound — and why the numbers might be telling a more complicated story about housing, commuting, and the county’s future.
We’re also diving into the latest data from our readers’ polls and providing insights from our economic dashboard, covering local Napa Valley, U.S. and global markets.
In addition, we feature "What We Are Reading," a section with a handpicked list of recent articles that provides a variety of viewpoints on issues important to our community and beyond.
“What We Are Reading” quotes of the day:
“Right now things are not going extremely well.” – from Alexandre Arnault in "U.S. wine and spirits face tough Q1 as volumes and revenues slide," The Drinks Business.
"A lot of wineries have told me, 'Hey, we're going to kind of minimize our tonnages, hopefully, long term, that's healthy for the vine. Maybe we get better fruit quality, because we can't use it all anyways, and we're not ready to pull these vineyards out.'" – from Andy Beckstoffer in "North Coast wine grape season faces challenges amid market uncertainties," North Bay Business Journal.
“We’re seeing savvy buyers rethinking strategies, looking for wines with strong provenance, ready-to-ship logistics, and long-term value.” – from Paul Tortora in "How a Trade War Could Lead to a Secondary Wine Market Boom," Robb Report.
"Cheating had become habitual and commonplace. He [Flaction] only very partially acknowledged his wrongdoing, and did not take responsibility for his actions." – from Judge Sophie Bartholdi Métrailler in "Wine Fraud Rocks Switzerland," Wine-Searcher.
“There are just so many factors at play, but what these all result in is less purchasing of California-grown fruit.” – from Natalie Collins in "The Plight of California’s Grape Growers," SevenFifty Daily.
"They [Canvasback, Migration, Paraduxx and Postmark] will continue to be sold in the wholesale market over the next few years" – from Robert Hanson in a recent Duckhorn Portfolio press release highlighting the phasing out of four brands and closing "underperforming" tasting rooms in 2025.
“We don’t want to be buying our pharmaceuticals from other countries because if we’re in a war, we’re in a problem, we want to be able to make our own.” – from President Donald J. Trump in a recent press release highlighting the executive order to reduce regulatory barriers and re-shore pharmaceutical production.
“The glasses changed my life ... I’m me again. It’s amazing. I feel normal.” – from Omeir Awan in "Subtitling Your Life," The New Yorker.
“If your youth is vulnerable because of anxiety, a tendency to have depression or be low in mood, then social media is something that really needs to be carefully monitored.” – from Anne Marie Albano in "Teens with anxiety and depression spend more time on social media," Nature Human Behaviour.
Under the Hood: American Canyon Grows While the Upvalley Shrinks
By Tim Carl
NAPA VALLEY, Calif. — According to the newly released California Department of Finance E-1 Population Estimates, Napa County posted its second consecutive year of growth in 2024, adding 709 residents for a total population of 136,124 as of January. The 0.5% increase marked the fastest growth rate among the nine Bay Area counties.
But the headline numbers don’t capture the full story. A closer look shows that this modest gain was driven almost entirely by American Canyon, which grew 2.9% year-over-year — accounting for more than 90% of the county’s net growth. Meanwhile, Upvalley towns — including Calistoga, St. Helena, Yountville and the unincorporated areas — continued to lose residents. This isn’t a broad rebound. It’s a narrow shift — one that raises deeper questions about the nature and direction of Napa County’s growth.
American Canyon: Regional vs. Local Growth?
American Canyon added homes at one of the fastest rates in California in 2024, with a 5.01% increase in housing units — ranking fifth statewide overall and first in multifamily housing growth. Much of this expansion stems from large-scale developments such as Watson Ranch and Lemos Pointe, which have helped make the city Napa County’s most active center for new construction.
American Canyon’s housing surge — fueled by relative affordability and proximity to regional job centers — may not reflect broader demographic or economic trends across the rest of Napa County.
So what does this growth mean for Napa County more broadly?
American Canyon sits at a geographic crossroads. While it is an integral part of Napa County, its location and infrastructure increasingly tie it to the broader Bay Area. With direct access to Interstate 80 and several major job corridors, the city has become a convenient residential base for people working in Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Sacramento and San Francisco counties. Recent trends may suggest American Canyon is functioning less as a contained local community and more as part of a regional housing network.
This isn’t inherently negative. Housing that offers regional flexibility can benefit individual households and help ease pressure on more expensive urban centers. But if Napa County’s objective is to support its own workforce — particularly those employed in education, healthcare, hospitality, wine-related industries or emerging sectors aiming to diversify the local economy — then it becomes important to assess whether that goal is being achieved. Creating family-friendly housing options is only one part of the equation. Gaining insight into where new residents work, their long-term goals and the factors influencing their housing choices is equally important.
Calistoga: Growth on Paper, But Little Structural Change
At the other end of the valley, Calistoga lost population in 2024. But that could soon change — at least on paper. The city has recently approved several apartment complexes, many of them designated for workforce housing. These units will likely show up in future state tallies, suggesting growth.
Yet appearances may again be misleading.
Some of this “new” population will likely come from existing Calistoga residents — multigenerational or multifamily households dispersing into separate units. Others may be local workers who have been commuting from Lake or Sonoma counties but are now relocating closer to their jobs.
These are positive developments in terms of stability and quality of life. But they do not necessarily signal population growth in the form of new families, new workers or expanded economic activity. Instead, they represent a redistribution of existing residents — a shift in housing format more than a demographic turning point.
Still Below Peak, With Fewer Working-Age Residents
Despite the recent uptick, Napa County is still far below its 2016 population peak of nearly 141,000. Today the county stands at 136,124 — down by roughly 5,000.
And the demographic trajectory remains troubling. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of working-age residents (18–64) is projected to fall nearly 20%, from 83,614 to 67,032. Meanwhile, the over-65 population is expected to grow by roughly 12%, to around 27,000.
That demographic shift — fewer workers, more retirees — has major implications for public services, healthcare systems and school enrollment. It also underscores the need to attract and retain young families, something current development patterns aren’t clearly accomplishing.
A Workforce in Decline — and Its Implications
Earlier Napa Valley Features stories have examined claims that 60,000 to 70,000 workers commute into Napa County daily. According to the Napa Valley Transportation Authority, the more accurate figure is closer to 30,740 inbound commuters — nearly balanced by 26,500 outbound commuters. Between 2015 and 2018, the net gain in commuters declined from approximately 7,000 to just 4,240. Available indicators suggest that this downward trend has likely continued.
This shift has several implications. As the net labor force shrinks and overall employment remains relatively flat, Napa County may face challenges maintaining workforce capacity across key sectors, including hospitality, healthcare and public education. The reduction in net commuter inflow suggests that the county is drawing fewer external workers than in past years, which could place additional pressure on local employers to recruit and retain staff from within the county.
At the same time, housing growth in parts of the county — notably in American Canyon — may be serving broader regional housing demand rather than expanding the local workforce. This introduces a potential mismatch: Infrastructure and services are scaled to accommodate more residents, but the local labor market does not reflect a corresponding increase in working-age participants or locally employed households.
This dynamic also intersects with education and community services. Several Napa County school districts have reported declining enrollment over the past decade, particularly in upper valley communities. While new housing could potentially stabilize those trends, there is currently limited data on whether younger families are moving into these units or whether the growth reflects other household types.
Housing Outpacing Jobs
Between 2023 and 2024, Napa County added 658 new housing units — a 1.2% increase. But employment remained stagnant. The disconnect between where people live and where they work is growing.
That’s especially clear in American Canyon, where the housing surge isn’t clearly tied to job creation within Napa County. And it may soon be evident in Calistoga, where new units might absorb existing regional demand without introducing new employment or tax base growth.
This imbalance has broader implications. A mismatch between residential development and local employment can strain service delivery, reduce per-capita tax revenue and challenge efforts to foster long-term community stability.
A Survey Could Help Focus Policy
One possible path forward: Conduct a countywide or regional survey to better understand who’s moving into new housing and why. Are they relocating from within the region? From out of state? Are they families with children or retirees seeking proximity to care?
Without this data, policymakers are left making assumptions — assumptions that might lead to mismatched infrastructure, underutilized services or an imbalance in the county’s economic base.
A well-designed survey could also assess barriers to entry. If younger families are not moving to Napa, is it because of housing prices? Lack of quality schools? Limited job opportunities for dual-income households?
The Real Question
We often hear that Napa County must build housing to solve affordability, equity and labor shortages. But if that housing primarily serves out-of-county commuters, retirees or households simply rearranging their living situations, then the policy might be addressing symptoms rather than causes.
A more useful question might be: Is new housing helping Napa County meet its long-term economic and community goals — or primarily accommodating regional demand for affordable, commutable living?
Napa County’s economic and demographic future hinges on the answer. And until we measure outcomes instead of intentions, we risk mistaking any growth for the kind of growth that matters.
—
Tim Carl is a Napa Valley-based photojournalist.
Today’s Polls:
Recent Poll Results
In Tim Carl’s article "Under the Hood: Food Insecurity in the Land of Plenty," the growing challenge of food insecurity in Napa County was laid bare. Despite the region’s reputation for abundance, programs like the Mobile Health food distribution effort are straining to meet rising demand amid uncertain funding. Reader polls show heightened concern about food insecurity, strong community awareness and a prevailing belief that the issue will worsen in the near future. Support for events such as the Neighborhood Table reflects a cautious yet hopeful outlook toward local engagement and solutions.
Question: How concerned are you about food insecurity in your local community?
Summary: Concern about food insecurity in local communities is widespread. A majority of respondents (55%) are extremely worried, while 33% are somewhat worried. Smaller percentages are neutral or unsure (4%), not very worried (6%) or not worried at all (2%). Total responses: 49.
Question: How personally connected do you feel to the issue of food insecurity?
Summary: Personal connection to food insecurity varies, with 46% seeing it in their community and 41% aware though not directly affected. A smaller group knows someone affected (7%) or is personally impacted (2%) while 4% haven’t noticed it. Total responses: 46.
Question: Do you think food insecurity in your area will change in the next six to12 months?
Summary: Outlook on local food insecurity is largely pessimistic, with 63% expecting it to get much worse and 27% anticipating it will get slightly worse. Only 10% think it will stay the same, and no respondents foresee improvement. Total responses: 48.
Question: I plan to attend or support the Neighborhood Table or similar events more than I have in the past.
Summary: Support for food insecurity events such as the Neighborhood Table is moderate, with 33% agreeing and 12% strongly agreeing they plan to participate more. Nearly half (48%) are neutral or unsure, while few disagree (5%) or strongly disagree (2%). Total responses: 42.
The Economy
Economic Pulse Indicators Local:
Key Local Takeaways:
Napa County employment dropped in March but remain above March 2024.
Napa County winery license issuance flattened this past week.
Housing prices rose by 1.2% MoM, and homes are taking 37 days to sell, down from 51 last month.
Napa County’s population has rebounded slightly over the past two years, though more than 90% of that growth occurred in American Canyon — a city that may be functioning more as a regional commuter hub than a reflection of broader countywide trends.
The Local Data:
In March, Napa County’s unemployment rate dropped MoM to 4.1% as total employment rose by 3,200 jobs year-over-year, led by gains in manufacturing (+1,500), leisure and hospitality (+700) and health services (+600), while losses were noted in trade, transportation and utilities (-100). (Source)
As of May 6, Napa County had 1,926 Type-02 winery licenses, which was flat from last week. (Source)
As of May 6, California has 6,857 Type-02 winery licenses, which was down one from last week. (Source)
As of February, Napa County’s civilian labor force stood at 76,150 people, still below its historical peak of 78,776 in October 2009 and well above its January 1991 low of 54,459, reflecting a long-term upward trend in labor-force participation. (Source)
Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector for Food Services and Drinking Places in Napa County rose to 7,283 in March (seasonally adjusted), up from 7,263 in February, continuing a slow recovery that remains about 4% below the June 2019 peak of 7,589; this follows a 62.8% growth from 2009 to 2019, with recent figures maintaining a trend of stagnation over the past five years, suggesting possible structural shifts in the sector. (Source)
According to Realtor.com via FRED, the median listing price for housing in Napa County fell to $1,448,000 in December 2024, reflecting a 19% decline from the May 2023 peak of $1,788,500 and a 3.4% month-over-month decrease from November 2024 ($1,499,000). (Source)
According to Zillow, as of May 6 the average home value in Napa County is $906,138, reflecting a 1.19% increase from $895,449 on April 10, with homes now going pending in around 37 days, down from 51 days previously. (Source)
Since peaking in 2016 at 140,778 residents, Napa County’s population has declined by 4,654 — a 3.31% decrease. As of January 2024, the county’s population stands at 136,124, still well below its pre-pandemic high. While recent estimates show modest year-over-year gains, long-term projections remain negative. The working-age population (ages 18–64) is expected to decline nearly 20% by 2030 — from 83,614 in 2020 to 67,032 — a projected loss of 16,582 residents in that key demographic.. (Source; Also, see above)
The population pyramid for Napa County, based on U.S. Census data, is skewed toward older age groups, with the largest populations in the 55 to 74 age bracket and a narrower base, indicating a smaller proportion of younger individuals under 20. (Source)
Economic Pulse Indicators United States:
Key U.S. Takeaways:
The U.S. labor market remains steady.
Inflation expectations surged again.
Consumer sentiment fell sharply again.
Manufacturing shows continued signs of weakening, with broader economic uncertainty growing.
U.S. Data:
Wine production in the United States totals 806.1 million gallons, with California contributing 680.3 million gallons, making up approximately 84.4% of the nation's total wine production. (Source)
While California’s population grew by 0.29% in 2024, Napa County outpaced that with a 0.52% increase. But over the longer term, Napa’s decline has been more pronounced: Since its 2016 peak, the county’s population has fallen 3.31%, while the state’s population has remained relatively flat. This suggests that, despite recent gains, Napa’s long-term demographic trajectory diverges from broader statewide trends. (Source)
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, with notable job gains in health care (+51,000), transportation and warehousing (+29,000), financial activities (+14,000) and social assistance (+8,000), while federal government employment declined by 9,000. (Source)
Initial unemployment claims rose by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, while insured unemployment increased by 83,000 to 1,916,000 — the highest since November 2021 — and the insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%. (Source)
In March the Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% due to a 6.3% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices rose 0.4% and core inflation rose 0.1%. Over the past year, overall CPI increased 2.4%, with food up 3% and energy down 3.3%. (Source)
In March, the Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.4%, driven by a 0.9% drop in goods and a 0.2% decline in services, though prices rose 2.7% year-over-year and core PPI (excluding food, energy and trade) increased 0.1% for the month and 3.4% over the year. (Source)
Gas prices remain high but were flat from last week. (Source)
As of April 16, consumer loans for credit cards and other revolving plans at all commercial banks rose to $1,094.46 billion from $1,092.14 billion on April 2, continuing a gradual upward trend in revolving credit usage at near-record levels. (Source)
In March, U.S. retail trade and food services sales rebounded to $734.87 billion, up from $722.7 billion in February and reversing the previous two months of declines. (Source)
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April was revised down to 50.2, indicating marginal growth as output declined again, new export orders dropped sharply due to tariffs and business confidence fell to its lowest level since June 2024. (Source)
In April, U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to 50.8, its lowest since June 2022 and far below expectations, with deteriorating views on business conditions, personal finances and inflation pushing year-ahead inflation expectations to a 44-year high of 6.7%. (Source)
In April, U.S. year-ahead inflation expectations rose for the fifth consecutive month to 6.7%, the highest since November 1981, while the five-year outlook climbed to 4.4%, the highest since June 1991. (Source)
Economic Pulse Indicators Global:
Key Global Takeaways:
Global GDP remains weak, with sluggish recovery in major economies.
The U.S. job market remains steady.
Shipping costs are flat but remain high, affecting trade.
Europe shows fragile growth, with Germany and the United Kingdom facing stagnation.
China continues to struggle with deflation, low confidence and a weak property market, signaling broader economic uncertainty.
Global Data:
Global GDP is expected to slip in 2025. (Source)
The United States maintains one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world. (Source)
Drewry’s World Container Index fell 3% to $2,091 per 40-foot container, which is 47% higher than the pre-pandemic average, as most major trade routes saw declining freight rates with further decreases expected amid tariff uncertainties. (Source)
Japan’s GDP grew 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.4% in Q3 and surpassing market expectations of 0.3%, driven by a 0.5% rebound in business investment, a 0.7% boost from net trade as exports rose 1.1% while imports fell 2.1%, and government spending growth of 0.3%, while private consumption edged up 0.1%, despite inflation and rising borrowing costs. (Source)
The British economy expanded 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, rebounding from zero growth in Q3 and defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction, driven by 0.2% growth in services, 0.5% growth in construction and 0.8% higher government spending, while production shrank 0.8% for the fifth consecutive quarter, exports fell 2.5%, imports rose 2.1% and household expenditure remained flat. (Source)
The German economy contracted 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, following a 0.1% expansion in Q3 and exceeding forecasts of a 0.1% decline, as lower exports offset gains in private and government consumption, with full-year GDP shrinking 0.2% after a 0.3% drop in 2023, prompting a downward revision of 2025 growth forecasts to 0.3% from 1.1% amid structural challenges such as labor shortages, bureaucracy and weak investment. (Source)
In March China’s consumer prices fell 0.1% year-on-year, missing expectations and marking a second monthly drop, though milder than February’s 0.7% decline, while core inflation rebounded to 0.5% and monthly CPI fell 0.4%. (Source).
In March China’s producer prices fell 2.5% year-on-year, the steepest drop since November and larger than expected, driven by declines in energy, raw materials and consumer goods, while monthly PPI fell 0.4%, the biggest drop in six months. (Source).
Consumer confidence in China increased to 87.50 points in January, up from 86.40 points in December 2024 and 86.20 points in November but remains at historic lows, well below the long-term average of 109.23 points from 1991 to 2025, with an all-time high of 127 in February 2021 and a record low of 85.50 in November 2022. (Source)
China’s real residential property prices fell further to 92.60 in Q4 2024, reaching a new multidecade low as the country’s property market downturn deepens. (Source)
What We Are Reading:
North Coast wine grape-growers in Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Lake counties are responding to an oversupply and market uncertainty by “mothballing” vineyards and limiting production until demand improves. (Source)
The threat and implementation of tariffs on imported European wines are driving increased demand in the U.S. secondary wine market, as collectors rush to buy domestically available bottles before prices rise further. (Source)
The US wine and spirits market saw significant declines in Q1 2025, with wine volumes dropping nearly 10% and revenue falling over 10%, while spirits also declined, signaling shifting consumer behavior and economic pressure across the industry. (Source)
Swiss winemaker Cédric Flaction was sentenced to prison for selling more than 850,000 liters of lower-cost Spanish and Swiss wines as premium Valais appellation wine in a fraud scandal that has rocked Switzerland’s wine industry and exposed links to another ongoing criminal investigation involving controversial figure Dominique Giroud. (Source)
California grape-growers are uprooting vines and leaving grapes unharvested as they face sluggish demand, falling prices, and mounting pressure from import incentives, tax loopholes, and competition with subsidized foreign wines, prompting calls for tariff reforms and market protections. (Source)
The Duckhorn Portfolio announced it will concentrate investment on its highest-performing wineries while phasing out four underperforming brands — Canvasback, Migration, Paraduxx and Postmark, and will close several "underperforming" tasting rooms in 2025. (Source)
A large U.K. survey published in “Nature Human Behaviour” found that teens with anxiety and depression spend significantly more time on social media—about 50 minutes more per day — yet feel less satisfied and more negatively affected by their online experiences than their peers. (Source)
A majority of Americans now believe their financial situation is worsening, with economic optimism plunging sharply since January amid stock market volatility and inflation fears driven by new tariffs and broader economic uncertainty. (Source)
President Trump signed an executive order aimed at accelerating domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing by streamlining Food and Drug Administration approvals, increasing oversight of foreign producers and cutting regulatory barriers to building drug production facilities in the United States. (Source)
“Subtitling Your Life” by David Owen in The New Yorker explores how recent breakthroughs in AI-powered transcription technology — such as glasses that display real-time speech on their lenses — are transforming life for people with hearing loss, offering greater independence, social engagement and accessibility than ever before. (Source)
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I see in your stats that manufacturing jobs increased in March. What types of manufacturing are taking place in Napa County? Thank you.